Potential Spatiotemporal Variability for Meteorological Drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq Using CMIP6 Models

Authors

• Zahraa Ali Fadhil, Department of Civil Engineering, Wasit University, Wasit, 52001, IraqFollow
• Salah L. Zubaidi, Department of Civil Engineering, Wasit University, Wasit, 52001, IraqFollow
• Yousif Almamalachy, National Center for Water Resources Management, Ministry of Water Resources, Baghdad, 10001, IraqFollow
• Mustafa Al-Mukhtar, Civil Engineering Department, University of Technology, Baghdad, IraqFollow
• Hatem Hameed Hussein, General Director for Planning and Follow up, Ministry for Water Resources, Baghdad, IraqFollow
• Ruqayah Mohammed, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, The University of Babylon, Hilla P.O. Box 4, IraqFollow
• Fouad H. Saeed, Ministry of Water Resources, Baghdad, IraqFollow
• Mawada Abdellatif, Civil Engineering and Built Environment Department, Faculty of Engineering Technology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 5UX, UKFollow
• Nadhir Al-Ansari, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Lulea University of Technology, Lulea, SwedenFollow

Abstract

This study proposes a framework for examining the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq, for both historical and future periods, using LARS-WG, five CMIP6 GCMs (SSP245 and SSP585), a Drought Index Calculator, and GIS tools. The Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI-12) was used to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of drought frequency and severity at seven meteorological stations between 1985 and 2015 and between 2021 and 2040. The main conclusions from the study included that LARS-WG performs successfully for climatic factor projection. The general average level of drought expected will be ``near-normal dry'', while the maximum drought level expected will be ``severely dry''. The near-normal drought category had the highest drought frequency in both the past and future scenarios. The highest values of drought intensity and frequency (severely) were recorded at Rutba Station, with a frequency of 4, and a recurrence rate of 13.33% for the baseline period. For both the first and second future scenarios, Haditha and Anah Stations will report the highest percentage of the moderate drought category (with drought frequency of 4 and recurrence rate of 21.05% for both stations).

Article Type

Original Study

First Page

71

Last Page

88

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License

Recommended Citation

Fadhil, Zahraa Ali; Zubaidi, Salah L.; Almamalachy, Yousif; Al-Mukhtar, Mustafa; Hussein, Hatem Hameed; Mohammed, Ruqayah; Saeed, Fouad H.; Abdellatif, Mawada; and Al-Ansari, Nadhir (2026) "Potential Spatiotemporal Variability for Meteorological Drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq Using CMIP6 Models," Warith Scientific Journal of Engineering and Technology: Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 4.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.65892/3079-0697.1006